Welcome back! I wanted to take a moment to wish you and your families a safe and happy holiday season. As we all know, times have been tough. It has been a year to remind us all of how fortunate we really are.
This past summer, I met a man who had been sleeping in front of our office building for months. After multiple conversations with him, I learned he was a genuinely kind person who happened to be down on his luck, like so many these days. Through his courage and effort, along with a little help from us, Robert Bouder has been able to regain employment and find himself a place to live.
Rob wanted to pass along his story. He contacted Fox 12 News; we received a call from reporter Kevin Koari who we have since met with. The segment aired last night December 9th during the 10pm news on Fox 12. Should you find interest, you can watch Ronald Sloy’s newest video here.
Again, happy holidays.
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Ron Sloy is back in the spotlight! View Ron’s latest KOIN TV segment titled: Market Outlook. This piece provides detailed financial analysis and future predictions regarding the Stock Market. You can view this segment below or find Ron Sloy on his YouTube Page. Enjoy and please feel free to share your input!
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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No October Pullback
With only two trading days left in the month of October, we certainly haven’t seen the significant pullback everyone has been expecting. The DOW and S&P have sat roughly flat for the month, amidst these negative expectations.
Not only have the markets remained relatively flat over the last 30 days, but there have also been some opportunities for gains. Take the natural resources sector, specifically focused on oil. This sector has continued to produce great returns for our clients. The price per barrel is slightly down today, but for the month has produced positive returns in excess of 10%. We anticipate $100 oil by the end of February.
We hold fast to our position that November and December have positive outlooks, and that we will finish the year higher than where we stand today.
Please feel free to contact us if you would like to learn more about how we work with our clients.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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Portfolio Adjustments
We would like to make you aware of the changes that will be occurring in our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios.
Because of our ever-changing economy, we are adjusting these portfolios to take full advantage of the current economic climate. The changes are as follows:
Lowering exposure:
• Large Cap Growth
Increasing Exposure:
• Small Cap Growth
• Europe
• Real Estate
• Latin America
As you are aware, we have been over-weighted in five areas of the economy and have had tremendous success year-to-date. We now see other opportunities and are diversifying our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios for those reasons.
Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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Quarterly Update
We would like to take a moment update you on our YTD performance through September 30th. As you may remember we have been over-weighted in five sectors of the economy.
• Emerging Markets (+61.25%)
• Technology (+49.75%)
• Natural Resources (+32.77%)
• Large Cap Growth (+26.86%)
• Financial Services (+25.98%)
Europe held a small position in our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios as well, but we reallocated those monies between Technology and Emerging Markets in early Q3 as Europe continued to lag other areas of the economy.
Through the end of the third quarter Sloy, Dahl & Holst’s Aggressive Portfolio was up approximately 40%, our Moderate Portfolio up 25% and our Conservative Portfolio up 13%. We are very proud to report these returns, with the S&P up 19.26%.
These last twelve months have been extremely volatile, yet rewarding. Even for the most experienced and savvy financial advisor, this was a very difficult time. I would like to say that we did our homework, and now our clients are being rewarded. We didn’t panic, we took advantage of sectors which were oversold, and yes we did a lot of hand holding to calm the nerves for those who considered selling. The market has moved from the March 9th lows up over 3,000 points, yet approximately 37% of all money managers missed this move. You cannot time the market, and the most important point I would like to make is you need to be invested when the market makes its move.
Historically, October can be a difficult month for the financial markets. Money managers have been expecting a pullback for the last few months, and now they are looking for that in October. We, however, do not expect a pullback, with the market closing yearend higher than where it is today. For those of you who have been sitting in cash, or have cash to invest, I would reposition those dollars now. I would like to make you aware that there is still approximately three to four trillion dollars in worldwide money market accounts which will eventually find their way back to equities. I believe by June of 2010 we could see a 1,200 S&P, which would be approximately another fifteen percent from where we are today. Please keep in mind; we are still approximately 4,500 points below our October 2007 highs.
I would like to take a moment to address the unemployment figures. This is usually the last key data point to improve. We anticipate that unemployment will stabilize by spring of 2010. We have seen numerous economic signs over the last 90 to 120 days which point to economic stability. The market anticipates six to nine months ahead, which is one of the reasons we feel that equities will outperform fixed income over the next eighteen to twenty four months.
We will be adjusting our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios during this fourth quarter to take advantage of some of the opportunities we see in the market (i.e. Small Cap Growth, Health Care/Bio-Tech, Commercial and Residential Real Estate). If you would like to learn more about our firm, our investment outlook, or how we work with 401(k) plans or individual investors, please feel free to contact our office and we’ll be happy to schedule a time to meet.
Ron Sloy, CFP
Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.
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You can now watch Ron Sloy in his KOIN TV interviews! Either visit the Ron Sloy YouTube Channel (http://www.youtube.com/user/RonaldSloy) or watch the two segments below:
The first segment – “Financial Dos and Don’ts” – discusses some Financial Tips for college students and young adults. The second segment – “Making Money in the Stock Market” – provides advice about the future of the stock market.
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Ron Sloy and Mike Donahue
If you weren’t able to see it, following is a link to the interview I had with Mike Donahue which aired yesterday on KOIN TV: Keep It Local, reflecting my views on the market and sectors we’ve had great success with this year. (Once the link opens, this interview is the fourth box scroll to the right.)
To view Ron’s segment, please visit Ron Sloy’s YouTube Channel or our updated Ron Sloy – Koin TV post.
Ron Sloy – KOIN TV: Keep It Local,
Our quarterly update will be sent out either today or tomorrow, which we’ll be sure and post as well.
I look forward to talking with you soon.
Best Regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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KOIN 6 Interview
For those of you who may be interested, I was asked to speak on a local television broadcast entitled “Keep it Local” on KOIN Channel 6 this past Monday. They have asked me to return on Monday, October 5th, to discuss the financial markets. I will be interviewed by Mike Donahue, and the piece will air between 4 and 4:30 PST.
I hope everyone had a great summer!
Update: You can now view this video of Ron Sloy or visit the Ron Sloy YouTube Channel
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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Window Dressing
With two days left in September, and two trading days left in the third quarter of 2009, don’t be surprised to see continued positive returns throughout the week. Yes there is a pressure to sell and book profits at a quarter’s end, but the pressure to move and hold positions in the quarter’s big winners should out way that. This pressure to hold winners, which is commonly referred to as window dressing, will keep trading volume high and might possibly push us beyond a 10,000 DOW by week’s end.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy
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Where is the September Pullback?
September is historically the worst month of the year for the market. However, the market is currently positive over 5% for the month, even amidst much expectation for a pullback. Events that helped drive the market this week were comments by the Fed Chairman (Bernanke), saying that the recession in his estimation has officially ended. Also, Warren Buffett’s comments that you should own stocks and long time market investor Barton Biggs, who has been extremely bearish the last couple of years, is now very bullish on U.S. and emerging markets.
Please remember even though the market has moved approximately 3,400 points since its March 9th lows, we are still 4,400 points off of the October 2007 highs. For the long term investor this market still holds tremendous opportunities.
Feel free to contact our office if you would like to learn more about how we work with our 401(k) and individual clients.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
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