Pullback or Shifting Gears?
Last week we talked about a handful of variables that drove additional uncertainty back into the markets. This week it’s a mixture of positives and negatives. On the bright side, Bernanke was reaffirmed yesterday afternoon. Whether you’re a supporter of his or not, this will bring some calmness and almost a sense of security back to the financial markets. We’ve also seen nearly 80% of all S&P 500 companies, who have reported, beating their Q4 estimates. One stable bellwether to note is Microsoft. Their Q4 earnings came in at $0.74 per share, with expectations set at $0.59. On a more negative note, the volatility index jumped quite a bit this week (nearly 20%). Consumer confidence also dipped slightly for the month of December.
So is this a pullback, or are we just shifting gears? I’d probably say a little bit of both. We ran so far, so fast, that a pullback and some profit taking were expected eventually. However, stock values are based on corporate profits. Companies have become refocused and leaner through these tough times. As earnings reports improve and profits rise, so will the stock market. Keep this in mind.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
Stocks Slide
Over the last couple of days we’ve seen a sharp decline in the market, recording the largest one day and two day drops in months.
So what’s going on?
A mixture of a few things have created this week’s decline. First, the change in the Senate seat of Massachusetts. This long held Democratic seat going to the GOP creates big questions about the current administration’s ability to move forward with their health care reform plans. Secondly, it has been a mixed bag of earnings reports this week. What seemed like a roaring recovery just a couple months, or even a couple weeks ago, doesn’t seem to feel as good right now. The word on the street is that things aren’t getting worse, but they aren’t getting much better either. Third, China’s Annual GDP grew at 10.5% for 2009. This causes concern of future inflation, and they have hinted towards increasing their interest rates. This will of course increase the cost of borrowing to the U.S. Last, but certainly not least, President Obama’s proposition to limit or prohibit banks from owning or investing in hedge funds hasn’t seemed to sit well with the financial markets today. This very well may be a good new safeguard against future bubbles and excess leveraging, but it screams slower growth and lower profitability today.
The first half of 2010 could be more volatile than we expected. However, this will also create many opportunities moving forward. We still feel 2010 will be a positive year
Best regards,
Ron Sloy
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
New Client Meeting Notice
Hello Everybody,
I wanted to update you on the transition of our 401(k) provider. After several meetings with Ron Sloy and Michael Tudor of Sloy, Dahl, Holst Inc., my partners and I have decided to move the company’s 401(k) benefit program from American Northwest Advisors to Sloy, Dahl, Holst Inc. There are some significant advantages that come along with this transition. First and foremost, we will be able to take advantage of fund revenue sharing which will offset the cost of administering the plan and providing this benefit to you. Ron has a proven track record, going back to 1986, of consistently out performing the S & P 500 as well as our current plan administrators.
We have scheduled a March 1, 2010 transition to Sloy, Dahl, Holst Inc. In anticipation of this switch, there will be two meetings on Thursday, January 14th, at 6:30 am and 9:30am, with Ron and Mike to go over the specifics of the transition and to answer any questions.
We are confident in Ron’s and Mike’s ability to manage our plan and to maximize the gains for those of us participating in the 401(k) plan. We have spoken to other firms that have made the switch to SDH and have received nothing but great reviews. Ron has a very hands on and proactive approach to the market. Ron and Mike will be here every quarter to discuss the performance of the plan and to help out those individuals seeking input on their accounts. We are very excited about this new relationship we have forged and believe that it will be fruitful for all involved.
Geoff
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
2009 Annual Review
We are now closing the book on 2009, but won’t soon forget what we experienced during the last twelve months. The year opened with the S&P sliding 25% in just over two months. Since then, from the March 9th lows it has been a bull market run for the history books. The ten months following this year’s lows brought us roaring back, positive more than 60%. Now we’ve closed the year with new 2009 highs on the S&P, DOW and NASDAQ.
As positive as 2009 was, if you weren’t able to make some bold decisions earlier in the year you may have missed this great run. If you remained invested and took advantage of some of the opportunities created, you were handsomely rewarded for your conviction.
We would like to take a moment to update you on our YTD performance through December 31st. As you may recall, we have been over-weighted in five sectors of the economy:
• Emerging Markets (+88.82%)
• Natural Resources (+48.24%)
• Technology (+40.45%)
• Large Cap Growth (+36.33%)
• Financial Services (+35.22%)
During the first week of November we reallocated some of our gains and added exposure to Latin America, Real Estate and Small Cap Growth. We also brought back a small position in our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios to Europe, which we had removed earlier in the year.
Through the end of the year Sloy, Dahl & Holst’s Aggressive Portfolio is positive approximately 45%, our Moderate Portfolio positive 35% and our Conservative Portfolio positive 15%. We are very proud to report these returns, with the S&P positive just shy of 24%.
“For those of you who have been sitting in cash, or have cash to invest, I would reposition those dollars now. I would like to make you aware that there is still approximately three to four trillion dollars in worldwide money market accounts which will eventually find their way back to equities. I believe by June of 2010 we could see a 1,200 S&P, which would be approximately another fifteen percent from where we are today. Please keep in mind; we are still approximately 4,500 points below our October 2007 highs.”
This was a quote from our third quarter update, which we sent October 1st. As you may be aware, many managers expected an October correction. We saw it the other way around, remaining bullish through year end. This proved extremely rewarding for our clients as the S&P has moved roughly 8% higher in the fourth quarter, and our accounts continue to outpace the indices. Many managers missed this move and remained over-weighted in cash.
Economic data points continue to improve. We will be adjusting our Model Portfolios during the first quarter of 2010 to take advantage of new investment opportunities on the horizon (Emerging Markets, Natural Resources, Technology, Commercial Real Estate, Latin America, and Health Care for the first time in many years).
If you would like to learn more about our firm, our investment outlook, or how we work with 401(k) plans or individual investors, please feel free to contact our office and we’ll be happy to schedule a time to meet.
Happy New Year!
Ron Sloy, CFP
Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
Welcome back! I wanted to take a moment to wish you and your families a safe and happy holiday season. As we all know, times have been tough. It has been a year to remind us all of how fortunate we really are.
This past summer, I met a man who had been sleeping in front of our office building for months. After multiple conversations with him, I learned he was a genuinely kind person who happened to be down on his luck, like so many these days. Through his courage and effort, along with a little help from us, Robert Bouder has been able to regain employment and find himself a place to live.
Rob wanted to pass along his story. He contacted Fox 12 News; we received a call from reporter Kevin Koari who we have since met with. The segment aired last night December 9th during the 10pm news on Fox 12. Should you find interest, you can watch Ronald Sloy’s newest video here.
Again, happy holidays.
Filed under: Ron Sloy, Ronald J. Sloy, Ronald Sloy | Leave a Comment
Tags: Helping Hand, Ron Sloy, Ronald Sloy
Ron Sloy is back in the spotlight! View Ron’s latest KOIN TV segment titled: Market Outlook. This piece provides detailed financial analysis and future predictions regarding the Stock Market. You can view this segment below or find Ron Sloy on his YouTube Page. Enjoy and please feel free to share your input!
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
Filed under: Consumer Confidence, Ron Sloy, Ron Sloy Videos, Stock Market | Leave a Comment
Tags: Financial Advice, Ron Sloy, Ron Sloy Market Outlook
No October Pullback
With only two trading days left in the month of October, we certainly haven’t seen the significant pullback everyone has been expecting. The DOW and S&P have sat roughly flat for the month, amidst these negative expectations.
Not only have the markets remained relatively flat over the last 30 days, but there have also been some opportunities for gains. Take the natural resources sector, specifically focused on oil. This sector has continued to produce great returns for our clients. The price per barrel is slightly down today, but for the month has produced positive returns in excess of 10%. We anticipate $100 oil by the end of February.
We hold fast to our position that November and December have positive outlooks, and that we will finish the year higher than where we stand today.
Please feel free to contact us if you would like to learn more about how we work with our clients.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
Portfolio Adjustments
We would like to make you aware of the changes that will be occurring in our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios.
Because of our ever-changing economy, we are adjusting these portfolios to take full advantage of the current economic climate. The changes are as follows:
Lowering exposure:
• Large Cap Growth
Increasing Exposure:
• Small Cap Growth
• Europe
• Real Estate
• Latin America
As you are aware, we have been over-weighted in five areas of the economy and have had tremendous success year-to-date. We now see other opportunities and are diversifying our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios for those reasons.
Please feel free to contact us if you have any questions.
Best regards,
Ron Sloy, CFP
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
Quarterly Update
We would like to take a moment update you on our YTD performance through September 30th. As you may remember we have been over-weighted in five sectors of the economy.
• Emerging Markets (+61.25%)
• Technology (+49.75%)
• Natural Resources (+32.77%)
• Large Cap Growth (+26.86%)
• Financial Services (+25.98%)
Europe held a small position in our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios as well, but we reallocated those monies between Technology and Emerging Markets in early Q3 as Europe continued to lag other areas of the economy.
Through the end of the third quarter Sloy, Dahl & Holst’s Aggressive Portfolio was up approximately 40%, our Moderate Portfolio up 25% and our Conservative Portfolio up 13%. We are very proud to report these returns, with the S&P up 19.26%.
These last twelve months have been extremely volatile, yet rewarding. Even for the most experienced and savvy financial advisor, this was a very difficult time. I would like to say that we did our homework, and now our clients are being rewarded. We didn’t panic, we took advantage of sectors which were oversold, and yes we did a lot of hand holding to calm the nerves for those who considered selling. The market has moved from the March 9th lows up over 3,000 points, yet approximately 37% of all money managers missed this move. You cannot time the market, and the most important point I would like to make is you need to be invested when the market makes its move.
Historically, October can be a difficult month for the financial markets. Money managers have been expecting a pullback for the last few months, and now they are looking for that in October. We, however, do not expect a pullback, with the market closing yearend higher than where it is today. For those of you who have been sitting in cash, or have cash to invest, I would reposition those dollars now. I would like to make you aware that there is still approximately three to four trillion dollars in worldwide money market accounts which will eventually find their way back to equities. I believe by June of 2010 we could see a 1,200 S&P, which would be approximately another fifteen percent from where we are today. Please keep in mind; we are still approximately 4,500 points below our October 2007 highs.
I would like to take a moment to address the unemployment figures. This is usually the last key data point to improve. We anticipate that unemployment will stabilize by spring of 2010. We have seen numerous economic signs over the last 90 to 120 days which point to economic stability. The market anticipates six to nine months ahead, which is one of the reasons we feel that equities will outperform fixed income over the next eighteen to twenty four months.
We will be adjusting our Moderate and Aggressive Portfolios during this fourth quarter to take advantage of some of the opportunities we see in the market (i.e. Small Cap Growth, Health Care/Bio-Tech, Commercial and Residential Real Estate). If you would like to learn more about our firm, our investment outlook, or how we work with 401(k) plans or individual investors, please feel free to contact our office and we’ll be happy to schedule a time to meet.
Ron Sloy, CFP
Sloy, Dahl & Holst, Inc.
Filed under: Ronald J. Sloy | Leave a Comment
You can now watch Ron Sloy in his KOIN TV interviews! Either visit the Ron Sloy YouTube Channel (http://www.youtube.com/user/RonaldSloy) or watch the two segments below:
The first segment – “Financial Dos and Don’ts” – discusses some Financial Tips for college students and young adults. The second segment – “Making Money in the Stock Market” – provides advice about the future of the stock market.
Filed under: Investors, Ron Sloy, Ronald Sloy, Stock Market | 1 Comment
Tags: KOIN TV, Ron Sloy, ron's investing tips
- See Photos of Ron Sloy
